FWP Region 3 Hunting Forecasts

As leaves fade to yellow, storefronts across Montana turn orange, adorned with huge “Welcome Hunters” banners. Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) also steps up to help people prepare for the season with its annual Hunting Forecast. This newsletter breaks down the state region by region to outline what hunters can expect for deer, elk and pronghorn. It’s also not just focused on big game. The forecasts include an upland game bird season outlook with trends for grouse, partridge and pheasant using FWP’s spring survey results, weather and other data. The forecasts included below is for Region 3, which includes a portion of Anaconda-Deer Lodge County; the Region 2 forecast was published on Sept. 3.

Southwestern Montana Big Game Forecast (Region 3)

Hunting opportunities for a variety of wildlife are plentiful in southwestern Montana. Hunters should remember that crowding will occur on easily accessible public lands, and wildlife may be visibly concentrated on private lands where access is limited. Hunters should acquire landowner permission well before hunting on private land and remember that continued access opportunities depend upon hunter behavior, ethics and safe hunting practices. Please treat all lands – public and private – with respect, abide by land-use rules from the landowner or land management agency and be courteous with other hunters and landowners sharing the landscape.

Elk

Hunters should remember that many of the elk are on private land and landowner permission is required. Hunters should also expect to encounter robust hunter activity on public lands during both the archery and rifle seasons.

Elk populations in the Livingston area are robust. Elk populations were within objective for HDs 314 and 393 and above objective for HDs 313, 315 and 317. Access to some areas of elk habitat on private land is challenging; hunters should expect to find a significant proportion of elk populations distributed on private lands not enrolled in the Block Management Program.

In the Sheridan area, within HDs 320, 322, 323 and 324, elk populations remained within management objective following the 2024 hunting season and preliminary summer surveys indicate strong calf production this year. Although elk populations remain robust, hunters should expect to find a large proportion of those elk distributed on private lands not enrolled in the Block Management Program during the fall hunting seasons.

In the Dillon area, elk numbers in the Pioneer and Tendoy elk management units (EMUs) remain strong. Calf recruitment in both units has been robust over the past two years, and hunting mortality has been low to moderate over the past two seasons. In the Pioneer EMU, numbers were particularly high in HD 329 this winter; however, this was in part due to a large number of elk from HD 331 moving into the district for the winter. These elk are expected to be distributed out into both HD 329 and HD 331 during the hunting season. In the Tendoy EMU, numbers were especially high in HD 302. However, this was likely due to elk from HD 303 moving into the area and a large contribution of elk from Idaho. A number of these elk are expected to use the Montana/Idaho border or summer in Idaho. Elk distribution will likely be shaped by forage growth, but it is hard to predict how this will manifest. Snow levels were very low this winter in many areas, which may have limited moisture and forage growth. However, regular amounts of summer precipitation may ameliorate the poor snowpack to some extent and allow elk to find forage more widely on the landscape. As in all years, snowfall during the hunting season will play an important role in hunter success.

In HDs 319, 321, 340, 350 and 370 in the Butte area, elk numbers are stable and strong, with a good calf crop this year. Thanks to decent growing conditions earlier this summer, elk appear to be in great shape.

In the Townsend area, elk in HDs 390 and 391 are found mostly on private land during hunting season, and numbers continue to be well above management goals. The ability to obtain access to private lands that have elk during the hunting season is always a key consideration when elk hunting in HDs 390 and 391. Overall elk numbers in HD 380, where hunting for brow-tined bulls is by limited-permit only, continue to be below the management goal. While elk numbers on national forest land in HD 380 are down, especially on the east side of HD 380, some private land areas in the hunting district may still have higher-than-desired numbers. Hunters are reminded that the general antlerless opportunity for youth and Permit-to-Hunt-from-Vehicle (PTHFV) hunters in HD 380 was reduced to the first three weeks of the general rifle season starting in 2024. Winter elk numbers in HD 392 continue to be well below the management goal, although there are believed to be more elk present in the HD during the hunting season than are observed during winter surveys.

Elk populations across the Helena area are generally robust and increasing yet remain within population goal ranges.

Bozeman-area elk numbers continue to be strong, with all herds within or above population goal ranges. Elk are at the lowest end of population goal range in HD 310, and hunters are reminded there is no legal way to harvest an antlerless elk in this district (not during archery, not with PTHFV, and not youth). The limitation on cow harvest in HD 310 is to encourage the population to grow. Crowding and access challenges (even in archery season) continue to be a source of complaint from hunters in most Bozeman districts, particularly where public land access is limited.

Mule deer

Mule deer numbers in the Livingston area remain below long-term averages.  However, fawn:adult ratios observed in the two Livingston area mule deer trend areas (Gardiner and Brackett Creek) showed improvement during this year’s spring green-up surveys. Hunters should expect similar conditions to recent prior hunting seasons, with a concerted effort required for hunters that are seeking older age animals.

Mule deer populations across hunting districts near Sheridan were mostly within management objective ranges as of spring 2025. Populations increased slightly relative to spring 2024, which was proceeded by a 20 percent increase during the prior year. Following a relatively productive growing season in 2024 and mild conditions last winter, fawn production is expected to be at or above long-term average for the third consecutive year. CWD has been detected, at low prevalence, among adjacent populations of mule deer along the eastern portions of the Ruby and Highland mountains and adjacent populations of elk along the eastern Ruby Mountains and western Greenhorn mountains.

Mule deer population counts in the Butte area continue to be at the low end of what’s been counted over the past 20 years. Hunters should expect to have to make a focused effort to find bucks with four points or more.

Mule deer numbers continue to be down on national forest lands in the Townsend district, particularly in HD 380. Mule deer numbers on private land vary by hunting district but are still generally good in some localized areas, particularly in HDs 390 and 391, in areas near irrigated alfalfa. Hunters are reminded that antlered mule deer hunting is by limited permit only in HDs 380 and 392, and that antlerless mule deer B licenses are not valid on national forest lands in HDs 380, 390 or 391.

Mule deer north of Helena have shown good recruitment in recent years, with some population growth but remain well below long-term average. South of Helena, mule deer populations appear to at or above long-term average, based on harvest data. Mule deer in the urban HD 388 that surrounds Helena appear to be increasing and above long-term average.

Bozeman mule deer numbers are also generally within or above average, although some local areas could see higher or lower deer abundance. Hunter crowding and access challenges continue to be a source of concern and complaint in most Bozeman districts, particularly where public land access is limited.

White-tailed deer

In the Sheridan area, chronic wasting disease (CWD) continues to be prevalent in white-tailed deer populations near the confluence of the Ruby and Beaverhead rivers. Within that area, white-tail abundance has diminished approximately 90 percent since spring 2020. That reduction was influenced by a combination of aggressive hunter harvest in an attempt to reduce deer abundance and disease-related mortality.

White-tailed deer continue to expand in hunting districts in the Dillon area, but harvest opportunity will remain almost exclusively on private lands. Hunters are encouraged to submit CWD samples from whitetails taken in this area, especially west of Interstate 15.

The Townsend district's white-tailed deer trend area was not flown this past spring. While some white-tailed deer can be found on national forest lands in the Townsend area, most of the white-tailed deer in the Townsend area are to be found on private land where access for hunting can be quite variable.

In the Helena area, white-tailed deer populations appear to be stable or increasing based on previous years' harvest.

Pronghorn

After multiple years of reduced recruitment and total pronghorn numbers, initial results from 2025 aerial surveys indicate that pronghorn populations are improving in the Livingston area. Rifle season quota reductions from prior years will remain in place for the 2025 season, but hunters who draw licenses may notice a moderate increase in pronghorn numbers compared to recent prior years.

In the Sheridan area, preliminary results of ongoing pronghorn surveys across HDs 320 and 322 indicate that populations remain stable relative to 2024 and near long-term averages. Like mule deer, fawn production among pronghorn appears to be near long-term average for the first time in several years. Well-below-average to record-low fawn production was observed during 2019-23. Low fawn production was likely influenced by harsh winter conditions during early 2019, an extended period of drought during 2020 and 2021, and harsh conditions during winter 2022-23. Relatively low rifle season license quotas will remain in place for the 2025 hunting season for those districts.

In the Dillon area, pronghorn numbers in HDs 300, 301, 310 and 329 have experienced declines in recent years. These have followed difficult drought conditions and a hard winter. These populations have experienced three to four years of very poor fawn production/recruitment. The difficult conditions experienced between 2020 and 2023 may have also had longer-term consequences on doe reproduction. Surveys conducted this summer show indications of improved fawn production, however, total numbers remain low and will likely take some time to recover. Therefore, the number of permits offered this year will be at the bottom of the quota range. Hunters in HD 300 should be aware that last year numbers were dramatically below average. While this was due partially to declines in the population, it also appeared that many animals failed to migrate into the district from Idaho. Preliminary information suggests numbers in HD 300 have improved over last year, however, hunting may still be challenging.

In the Butte area, pronghorn numbers are down in HDs 318 and 319 due to harsh winter conditions in 2023 that impacted that year’s fawn production and likely left a proportion of the doe population barren. This trend will likely continue for several more years until those does die out and are replaced with viable does. In HDs 340, 350 and 370, numbers are strong. Those districts did not get the harsh weather in 2023. Hunters successful in drawing an either-sex license in these districts are encouraged to get the additional opportunity doe/fawn licenses that are available to them.

Pronghorn distribution in the Townsend area is often clumpy, so some localized areas can have lots of pronghorn while other areas are largely devoid of them. Securing access to private lands (which may include block management areas) that have pronghorn on them during the hunting season will provide the best opportunity for success.

In the Helena area, pronghorn populations in HDs 388 and 381 are well above the long-term average, with average fawn:doe ratios, but below-average buck:doe ratios.

Bozeman-area pronghorn numbers are low but showing signs of recovering from recent severe winters.

Upland game birth outlook for southwestern Montana

Sheridan area: Sage-grouse population surveys completed during spring 2025 across southwestern Region 3 indicated a year-over-year increase of approximately 40 percent, following several consecutive years of observed decline. The population trend was slightly above the long-term average. Chick production and survival among grouse for 2025 remains unknown. Wildlife biologists will be collecting wings from hunter-harvested grouse during the fall season to assess young-of-the year composition.

Dillon area: Sage-grouse lek counts in the 18 monitored leks in southwestern Montana showed improved numbers this spring overall. This, however, did not apply to all leks, and the documented growth follows approximately 10 years of overall declines. The proportion of juveniles to adults documented from hunter-donated wings has indicated poor juvenile recruitment in recent years. However, in 2024 this improved somewhat, particularly east of I-15. This recruitment and a mild winter may have improved population performance. Thus far conditions appear to have been favorable to recruitment. We did not experience late snows that can impact nest success during the brooding period. In addition, residual cover for nesting appeared good. We have also seen regular precipitation which may improve forage. Information on mountain grouse is more limited. However, we have seen a similar pattern in juvenile-to-adult ratios as sage-grouse. In recent years recruitment appeared poor in mountain grouse, but it improved last season. The poor snow year may have reduced moisture with negative consequences for forage and cover this summer. However, this may be counteracted by timely summer rain fall. In at least some areas, a large number of grasshoppers have been observed this year which could provide important foraging opportunities for mountain grouse.

Butte area: Good growing conditions were observed in early summer that should be conducive for good chick survival and healthy broods on the landscape.

Townsend area: Pheasants, mountain grouse, gray partridges and turkeys are the primary upland game bird species available in the Townsend area. Multiple releases of pheasants will occur again this year on Canyon Ferry WMA. Turkey numbers are down from years past, but turkeys can still be found scattered across the foothills of the Big Belts.