A political rematch in Montana’s First Congressional District

With the U.S. Senate race sucking up all the oxygen and advertising dollars in Montana politics, voters can be forgiven if they’re less aware of another tight federal contest in Big Sky Country: Democrat Monica Tranel’s attempt to unseat Republican Ryan Zinke in Montana’s First Congressional District.

The race is a rematch of the election in 2022, when Zinke beat Tranel by 3 percentage points. According to September polling from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, this year’s race is virtually tied, with Zinke leading Tranel 46% - 45% and a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. (An earlier AARP poll had Tranel down by 6 points.)

Jessi Bennion, a professor of political science at Montana State University, said the way the Western District was drawn to include traditionally Democratic towns like Missoula, Bozeman and Butte gives Tranel a chance in an increasingly red state.

“The Western District is a district that could potentially have a Democrat elected,” Bennion said. “Monica Tranel has already run, so voters know who she is. She’s working hard. She’s on the road a lot. But Zinke is a hard opponent. He’s been in Montana politics for 10 years or more.”

Zinke, 63, a Whitefish-based former Navy SEAL and Montana state senator, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014, when Montana had just one Congressional district. In 2017, President Donald Trump appointed Zinke to serve as the Secretary of Interior. Zinke resigned in 2019 amid federal investigations into his conduct in office and his real-estate deals in Montana. In 2022, Zinke became the first to represent Montana’s First Congressional District in Washington, D.C.

Tranel, 58, a Missoula-based lawyer and former Olympic rower, was born in Wyoming and grew up in eastern Montana. She started her legal career litigating telecommunications and energy issues. After serving as the staff attorney for the Montana Public Services Commission, she ran as a Republican for a seat on the Commission. When she lost that race, she went to work in Washington, D.C. for Montana’s Republican U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns. In 2020, she unsuccessfully ran for the PSC again as a Democrat. After that, she set her sights on Montana’s new Congressional district.

Jeremy Johnson, a professor of political science at Carroll College, said rural Montana is moving sharply toward the Republican party, a problem for Democrats running statewide like Tranel.

“In a presidential year it’s going to probably be higher than [in] the midterm election year,” Johnson said. “She really needs those college students in Missoula to come out for her.”

Tranel is campaigning hard across western Montana, putting tens of thousands of miles on her family minivan. She’s hosted events, walked in parades, knocked on doors, and visited schools, hospitals and post offices.

“I’ve gone everywhere across this district,” she said. I know it and that’s how I’ve connected.”

Zinke, meanwhile, has mostly been in Washington, D.C., working in a fractious Congress. In 2023, Zinke voted to keep Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as house speaker, even as Montana’s other representative, Republican Matt Rosendale voted to oust him.

“I get a report card every two years,” Zinke said, “and despite the difficulty in D.C. at the moment, we were able to get a lot done.”

While in office Zinke helped bring western Montana nearly $35 million to fund infrastructure, rural development and public safety projects. Zinke cosponsored a housing act to create a new loan program that would make home ownership more accessible for police officers, first responders and teachers.

Housing has been a major focus for Tranel’s campaign, too. She said she hears from people across Montana that housing is too expensive. Her plan to address this crisis is to make sure that the federal housing programs are fully funded so the state and counties have the resources they need to support renters and homeowners.

Both candidates talk about immigration and the border. Tranel’s stance on immigration is that we need to secure the border and have a legal process for entry. In a recent campaign ad, Tranel distances herself on this issue from her party leadership. “We have a real crisis at the border,” she says, “and Joe Biden is not doing enough to fix it.”

Zinke said every city in Montana is concerned about the border because of fentanyl, child, drug and sex trafficking. He believes the border should be shut down to undocumented entry. At the same time, he said the U.S. should make it easier for professionals like nurse practitioners, carpenters and laborers to enter the country legally and with a background check.

Zinke’s appeal to voters hits on many of the major Republican values. “I like less government, more jobs,” he said. “I don’t like government control of health care. I don’t like government control of our lives. I respect and enjoy Montana’s independent spirit … I want to make sure that that Montana is available for the next generation.”

Tranel said if she were elected, she would work to improve the quality of life in the state she calls home. “I’m for Montana,” she said. “I live here I’m raising my kids here. I’m about representing the people in Montana. I would say, fundamentally, I come to this with a servant’s heart.”